Lillian Jordan, ELR Staffer FLS ‘27

For American farmers, 2025 was a year of uncertainty. The U.S. placed tariffs on roughly 71% of imports, prompting major trade partners to retaliate with tariffs of their own. China, historically the largest importer of U.S. soybeans, accounted for 53% of annual purchases between 2020 and 2024. In response to U.S. tariffs, China imposed multiple rounds of retaliatory duties on U.S. soybeans throughout 2025, which reduced the price competitiveness of U.S. soybeans. China reduced its U.S. imports by more than 73%, resulting in an estimated $6.8 billion in lost export value.

Many farmers rely on global export markets to stay profitable. When export demand declined, farmers struggled to sell harvested crops to their usual buyers. If crops are not sold, they have to be stored. Grain storage facilities already operated near capacity during harvest season, leaving little room for excess supply. As storage filled, farmers faced higher storage costs or accepted lower prices to move their crops. At the same time, input costs increased for necessary farming supplies such as fertilizer, fuel, and machinery, further narrowing profit margins. In response to these market disruptions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced one-time bridge payments totaling $12 billion to support American farmers affected by “unfair market conditions.” These payments provided short-term relief, but they did not fully offset the broader financial pressures created by declining export demand and rising operating costs. 

Farmers’ reported economic outlook deteriorated as trade volatility continued into 2026. A February 2026 survey found that farmer sentiment declined sharply at the start of the year. Farmers reported growing concern about trade policy uncertainty and rising input costs. Many producers also expressed concern about the long-term profitability of their operations. These responses suggest that tariff-driven volatility continued to shape farmers’ economic expectations even after the most acute disruptions of 2025. This uncertainty also reflects ongoing legal challenges to the tariffs themselves.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a decision in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, holding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the president to unilaterally impose broad tariffs. For farmers, the Supreme Court’s ruling may have mixed consequences. Removing a portion of the tariff regime could reduce input costs and restore some predictability to trade negotiations. However, lingering uncertainty about replacement tariffs under alternative statutes may continue to affect export competitiveness and long-term planning. The ruling underscores the importance of statutory clarity in trade policy and suggests that agricultural stakeholders will need to closely monitor how Congress and the Trump Administration adjust tariff law and negotiating strategy in the post-2025 landscape.